ViacomCBS Could See $350M Ad Hit In Q1 On Cancelled NCAA Basketball As TV Industry Faces Live Sports Scarcity
ViacomCBS may see a $350 million hit this quarter on the cancellation of the Males’s NCAA Basketball Event, says one media analyst. David Miller from Imperial Capital has reduce earnings forecasts for the corporate and his worth goal for the inventory, which is down 16% Wednesday.
The NCAA on March 13 cancelled this yr’s NCAA Males’s Basketball event because of the COVID-19 outbreak after skilled sports activities leagues from the NHL, NBA, and MLB shuttered seasons and a number of Energy 5 conferences, together with the Huge Ten, the ACC, the SEC and the Pac-12, all determined to cancel their respective convention tournaments, which in some ways, determines seeding for the NCAA event. In contrast to the skilled leagues whose seasons could also be salvaged later within the calendar yr, March Insanity won’t be rescheduled, Miller mentioned.
He estimates ViacomCBS will lose out on roughly $350 million in promoting income. It would in all probability not need to pay rights charges again to theNCAA, which he thinks had been set to complete $240 million within the second quarter. Rights charges for the conglom this yr – versus 2019 or 2021 – had been set to be softer, he mentioned, as a result of in all of the Closing 4 video games and NCAA Championship sport go to Turner in all even years.
As an indication of how rapidly issues devolved, he mentioned that up till final Wednesday, NCAA event promoting stock was promoting briskly, with CPMs up a mean 9.2% year-on-year, relying on the spherical and sport.
ViacomCBS has enterprise interruption insurance coverage and can be submitting a declare, however Miller mentioned mechanics of that aren’t clear but and he’s not factoring it in to his fashions proper now.
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Miller is slicing his first quarter income forecast by $370 million to $6.58 billion; working earnings by $100 million to $1.2 billion and earnings per share from $1.16 to $1.05.